Midterm Election Takeaway: Many defeats for the 'Big Lie,' but the 'Big Flaw' remains

Photo by Arnaud Jaegers on Unsplash

For those of us working to reduce partisanship in election administration and protect fair elections, last night brought a lot of good news, along with some bad, with more to understand in the days and weeks ahead.

Here’s one way to sum it up: The “Big Lie” lost a lot of ground, but the “Big Flaw” — of partisan control over election administration — is very much still with us, and urgently needs fixing.

Takeaways:

1. Most election-denier secretary-of-state candidates have been stopped.

Key races in Arizona and Nevada are still undecided, but the big picture is better than expected. Between four and six secretary-of-state candidates who would not acknowledge the 2020 result will win office, out of 33 denier candidates at the start of the primaries (details below).

The states soon to have a denier as their chief election official are Alabama, Indiana, South Dakota, and Wyoming. In Arizona, Mark Finchem trails by 5 points as of this writing, and Jim Marchant leads in Nevada by 1. Florida will also likely be a problem; there, Gov. Ron DeSantis’s re-election means the secretary of state he appointed, denier Cord Byrd, will likely stay in office.

2. Denier candidates for other offices underperformed expectations, while candidates who rejected denialism fared well:

• In Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, whose denialism was central to his political rise, lost his race for governor by a large margin, performing significantly worse than his party’s U.S. Senate candidate.
• Denier candidates for governor in Wisconsin and Michigan, and for the Senate in New Hampshire, all lost races analysts saw as winnable for the GOP.
• In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp and Sec. of State Brad Raffensperger, who both famously stood up to President Trump’s subversion efforts, comfortably won re-election, outperforming their party’s Senate candidate.

3. In key states, voters sent a message that they value impartial election administration.  

• In Washington, nonpartisan candidate Julie Anderson trails only narrowly in her race for secretary of state, despite taking on an incumbent Democrat in a blue state without the backing of a major party, and being heavily outspent — even as voters overwhelmingly re-elected a Democratic senator. Anderson’s strong showing demonstrates that voters see the value of keeping this office out of the partisan fray.
• In Michigan, voters easily passed Proposal 2, which ERN is proud to have supported. The ballot measure expands voting access and prevents partisans from using the certification process to subvert election results. The victory suggests that voters understood the threat to fair elections posed by partisan manipulation, and overwhelmingly wanted to address it.  

4.  Election conflict-of-interest drew increased attention. Running elections while running for office is becoming increasingly untenable, something no other democracy expects its election officials to manage. This cycle, Arizona Republicans repeatedly called on Secretary of State Katie Hobbs to recuse from her election role while running for governor. Democrats made similar demands in Georgia in 2018, and it’s time for both sides to see the value in change.

We’ve called for officials in this situation to recuse themselves from certain duties — and we’re already seeing our call have an impact. Longer term, our ethics legislation would allow states to end this clear conflict of interest, and bolster voters’ trust in the process.

5.  Many feared problems did not arise — that needs to continue as close races are finalized. Thankfully, concerns about disruptions in polling stations from overzealous party poll-watchers and voter challenges did not materialize. Likewise, voter turnout seems to have been high, even in states where many worry new laws make voting harder. These are very good trends. Now focus is needed on the critical post-election phase, as the many close elections are finalized.

There are early signs that some candidates may try to rally supporters by undermining faith in the process. That’s why ERN will continue to work with journalists and election officials to help educate the public about how close and contested elections work, and why they don’t signal a crisis. We’ll have more updates as the full picture comes into focus.